Minnesota United 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.62
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.62 — our 28% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.91
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
19%
5.16
X/2
11%
6.9
X/X
12%
5.28
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
13%
4.37
2/X
8%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.3pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +26%
1.76/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.57
-11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
22.0 Crosses 11.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
3W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
2.35 xG 1.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
410 Passes 431
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
25.10.2020 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
04.10.2020 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
29.06.2019 Minnesota United Minnesota United 7-1 HT 4-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.06.2018 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.55 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
335 Passes 417
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Minnesota United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Minnesota United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 46% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 54%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.55 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Minnesota United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Minnesota United and 0.40 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs FC Cincinnati?

Minnesota United 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 43%, draw 27%, FC Cincinnati 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Minnesota United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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