New York City FC 1-5 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.59
2-3 Goals
35%
2.02
4-5 Goals
29%
2.64
6+ Goals
14%
6.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.44
X/2
9%
9.18
X/X
10%
6.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.85
2/2
16%
5.93
2/X
8%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.4pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.9pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.2pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
2.03/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.45
+10% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.7 Crosses 16.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.21 xG 1.73
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
412 Passes 280
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 0-2 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.01.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union HAZ
16.07.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
28.05.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 1-2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
31.10.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.06.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
1-5
AWAY Philadelphia Union
3.11 xG 1.76
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 4
515 Passes 247
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union cruised past New York City FC 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, New York City FC had 64% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 36%, shots finished 26-12, expected goals 3.11 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured New York City FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New York City FC and 2.33 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

New York City FC 1-5 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 42%, draw 28%, Philadelphia Union 30%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York City FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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