Kilmarnock 2-2 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 19 Sep 2025

Kilmarnock
2-2 HT 1-1
St. Mirren
📅19/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - League Cup – 2025/2026

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.6
6+ Goals
7%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.46
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
14%
6.18
X/2
9%
5.07
X/X
11%
4.38
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.28
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kilmarnock v St. Mirren — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 45%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.98/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/1.53
-9% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
249 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
4W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
201 Passes 235
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.03.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 5-1 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
14.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
16.03.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 5-2 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.12.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock and St. Mirren couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.50 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?

Kilmarnock 2-2 St. Mirren in the Scotland - League Cup on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 36%, draw 28%, St. Mirren 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✗ Under 2.5
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