St. Mirren 5-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
4.37
6+ Goals
8%
21.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.41
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
13%
5.11
X/2
13%
6.29
X/X
13%
4.18
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
12%
4.71
2/X
11%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.0pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.35/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.18
-15% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
257 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 69%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
27.6 Crosses 23.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.77 xG 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
240 Passes 204
68% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
14.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
16.03.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 5-2 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.12.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
30.09.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
5-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.62 xG 1.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
158 Passes 224
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren swept aside Kilmarnock 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; St. Mirren found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Mirren had 42% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 58%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 1.62 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for St. Mirren and 2.00 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

St. Mirren 5-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 38%, draw 31%, Kilmarnock 31%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Mirren) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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