Morecambe 1-3 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.05
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
13%
7.11
X/2
12%
4.62
X/X
9%
4.9
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.76
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-2.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.42/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.17
+14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
162 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.6 Crosses 16.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.62 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
269 Passes 495
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
20.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
23.12.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-3 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
25.03.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
08.11.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İNLK
27.08.2022 Morecambe Morecambe 0-4 HT 0-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
23.04.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-3
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
38% Ball Possession 62%
18 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 4
195 Passes 418
65% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons beat Morecambe 3-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Morecambe had 38% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 62%, shots finished 18-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Morecambe and 2.17 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Morecambe 1-3 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 33%, draw 24%, Milton Keynes Dons 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Accrington Stanley vs Barrow Analysis →
00:00 Colchester vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
00:00 Bradford City vs Gillingham Analysis →
00:00 Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon Analysis →
00:00 Grimsby Town vs Walsall Analysis →
00:00 Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →