Notts County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.25
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.21
X/2
15%
6.24
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.18
2/X
10%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.36/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.96
-29% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +44%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 67%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
30.8 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
0W-0D-4L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.34 xG 2.70
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
568 Passes 170
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.03.2024 Notts County Notts County 0-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
25.11.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-2 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
23.01.2016 Notts County Notts County 0-2 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
19.09.2015 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-0
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 1
477 Passes 204
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County nicked a narrow win over AFC Wimbledon 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Notts County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Notts County had 67% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 33%, shots finished 12-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Notts County and 2.50 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?

Notts County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Notts County 35%, draw 28%, AFC Wimbledon 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Accrington Stanley vs Barrow Analysis →
00:00 Colchester vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
00:00 Bradford City vs Gillingham Analysis →
00:00 Grimsby Town vs Walsall Analysis →
00:00 Morecambe vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →
00:00 Swindon Town vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →