Lugo 1-0 Celta Vigo II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.36
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.11
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.9pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.9pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo II EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +8%
1.06/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.91
-22% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 203 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Celta Vigo II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II 4-1 HT 1-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
02.01.2024 Lugo Lugo 0-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
06.08.2017 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
1-0
AWAY Celta Vigo II
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Celta Vigo II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo II 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Lugo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lugo had 34% of the ball to Celta Vigo II's 66%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lugo and 1.67 for Celta Vigo II.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Celta Vigo II?

Lugo 1-0 Celta Vigo II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Celta Vigo II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lugo 37%, draw 30%, Celta Vigo II 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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