Palermo 1-1 Modena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 19 Oct 2025

Palermo
1-1 HT 1-0
Modena
📅19/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Palermo vs Modena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.19
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
12.2
X/1
16%
5.17
X/2
7%
6.9
X/X
12%
4.08
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.03
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.3pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-5.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palermo v Modena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Modena EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.40/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.31
+4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.0 Crosses 16.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

Palermo vs Modena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Modena
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.13 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
322 Passes 333
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.01.2025 Palermo Palermo 2-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
19.10.2024 Modena Modena 2-2 HT 0-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
20.01.2024 Palermo Palermo 4-2 HT 2-1 Modena Modena İTB
07.10.2023 Modena Modena 0-2 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
17.03.2023 Palermo Palermo 5-2 HT 1-2 Modena Modena İTB
29.10.2022 Modena Modena 0-2 HT 0-2 Palermo Palermo İTB

Palermo 1-1 Modena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-1
AWAY Modena
0.71 xG 0.93
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
219 Passes 349
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Modena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo and Modena couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Palermo had 42% of the ball to Modena's 58%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.71 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Palermo and 1.00 for Modena.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Modena?

Palermo 1-1 Modena in the Italy - Serie B on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Modena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Palermo 47%, draw 29%, Modena 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Palermo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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