Central Coast Mariners 3-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.81
6+ Goals
13%
7.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.75
1/2
5%
21.8
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
15%
7.26
X/2
14%
5.14
X/X
11%
5.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
2/2
24%
2.78
2/X
5%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.4pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.53/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.27
-9% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +49%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 83%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.5 Crosses 19.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.92 xG 1.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
370 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 6-0 HT 2-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
01.02.2025 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.11.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
27.04.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
02.03.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
25.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
3-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
3.18 xG 2.45
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
264 Passes 464
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners squeezed past Newcastle Jets 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 39% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 61%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 3.18 to 2.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.83 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

Central Coast Mariners 3-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 33%, draw 24%, Newcastle Jets 43%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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