Aguilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+5.5pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.10/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.05
+20% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
278 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
16.8 Crosses 18.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguilas Doradas
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 0.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
281 Passes 244
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.06.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 4-0 HT 3-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOLK
27.04.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
07.11.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-0 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
18.04.2024 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 4-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
16.10.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
18.06.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
1-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.92 xG 0.44
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 4
289 Passes 156
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 19
34 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas squeezed past Alianza Petrolera 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aguilas Doradas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 60% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 40%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.92 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aguilas Doradas and 1.33 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Aguilas Doradas 1-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 42%, draw 27%, Alianza Petrolera 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
19 Oct 2025
02:20 Junior vs Deportivo Pereira Analysis →
04:30 Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali Analysis →