Pafos 2-1 Omonia Nicosia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 20 Feb 2025

📅20/02/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.0
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
35%
2.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
8%
4.73
X/2
10%
7.37
X/X
13%
4.45
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.57
2/X
6%
13.75
Value flag · 1/1 at 2.79 — our 35% vs market 29.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.8pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pafos EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Omonia Nicosia EU Bookmakers 30%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.12/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.13
-100% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
27.0 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pafos
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Omonia Nicosia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.56 xG 1.25
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 0
389 Passes 248
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
47 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2025 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 1-1 HT 0-0 Pafos Pafos AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pafos
2-1
AWAY Omonia Nicosia
1.73 xG 0.79
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
311 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pafos vs Omonia Nicosia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pafos edged past Omonia Nicosia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pafos as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pafos had 51% of the ball to Omonia Nicosia's 49%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.73 to 0.79.

What was the final score of Pafos vs Omonia Nicosia?

Pafos 2-1 Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 20/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pafos vs Omonia Nicosia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pafos win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pafos 48%, draw 25%, Omonia Nicosia 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pafos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pafos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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