Caen 1-3 Sochaux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 20 Feb 2026

Caen
1-3 HT 0-1
Sochaux
📅20/02/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.54
Over
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.99
No
63%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
44%
2.22
2-3
35%
1.71
4-5
14%
4.82
6+
7%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.22 — our 44% vs market 36.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
19%
5.46
X/2
12%
5.5
X/X
14%
3.63
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
20%
4.1
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · X/1 at 5.46 — our 19% vs market 14.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.2pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+5.1pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-5.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
46%
-9.2pp
63%
BTTS No
54%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sochaux The Market 37%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
0.52/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.07
-57% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sochaux
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 401
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.09.2025 Sochaux Sochaux 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR3
06.03.2023 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Sochaux Sochaux FR2
20.01.2023 Sochaux Sochaux 1-2 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
15.01.2022 Sochaux Sochaux 3-2 HT 0-2 Caen Caen FR2
07.08.2021 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 0-0 Sochaux Sochaux FR2
24.04.2021 Sochaux Sochaux 1-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Sochaux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sochaux saw off Caen 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Sochaux made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sochaux led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caen and 1.33 for Sochaux.

What was the final score of Caen vs Sochaux?

Caen 1-3 Sochaux in the France - National League 1 on 20/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Sochaux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Caen 37%, draw 26%, Sochaux 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR3 More France - National League 1
20 Feb 2026
21:30 Aubagne vs Quevilly Analysis →
21:30 Concarneau vs Versailles Analysis →
21:30 Rouen vs Le Puy Analysis →
21:30 Villefranche vs Dijon Analysis →
21:30 Paris 13 Atletico vs Valenciennes Analysis →
21:30 Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Orleans Analysis →