Little Rock Rangers 1-0 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over Pick
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.6pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Little Rock Rangers EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +138% / +38%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Little Rock Rangers
1-0
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.75 xG 1.63
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
96 Passes 195
54% Pass Accuracy 67%
5 Box Touches 22
3 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Little Rock Rangers vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Little Rock Rangers nicked a narrow win over Birmingham Legion 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham Legion at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Little Rock Rangers had 36% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 64%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.75 to 1.63 — the balance of chances actually favoured Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Little Rock Rangers vs Birmingham Legion?

Little Rock Rangers 1-0 Birmingham Legion in the USA - Open Cup on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Little Rock Rangers vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Little Rock Rangers 28%, draw 28%, Birmingham Legion 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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