Real Monarchs vs El Farolito Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Monarchs v El Farolito — Team-Based Signals
Real Monarchs 1-3 El Farolito — Actual Match Statistics
El Farolito beat Real Monarchs 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Real Monarchs at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%) came in.
On the day, Real Monarchs had 71% of the ball to El Farolito's 29%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.72 to 2.30.
What was the final score of Real Monarchs vs El Farolito?
Real Monarchs 1-3 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Monarchs vs El Farolito?
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Monarchs win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Real Monarchs 43%, draw 20%, El Farolito 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Monarchs) went the other way.