Real Monarchs 1-3 El Farolito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
37%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.15
Over 2.5
62%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.6
No
38%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.0pp
20%
Draw
25%
-4.8pp
37%
Away Win
26%
+10.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
43%
-5.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
57%
+5.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
58%
+3.4pp
38%
BTTS No
42%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Monarchs EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY El Farolito EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +66% / +66%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +107%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
Crosses 27.5
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Monarchs
1-3
AWAY El Farolito
0.72 xG 2.30
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
637 Passes 192
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Real Monarchs vs El Farolito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Farolito beat Real Monarchs 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Real Monarchs at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Real Monarchs had 71% of the ball to El Farolito's 29%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.72 to 2.30.

What was the final score of Real Monarchs vs El Farolito?

Real Monarchs 1-3 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Monarchs vs El Farolito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Monarchs win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Real Monarchs 43%, draw 20%, El Farolito 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Monarchs) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Monarchs) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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