İtalya 1-2 Almanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 20 Mar 2025

İtalya
1-2 HT 1-0
Almanya
📅20/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

İtalya vs Almanya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
28%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.96
6+ Goals
7%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 33% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.9
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
3%
12.65
X/1
17%
5.7
X/2
10%
5.76
X/X
19%
4.05
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
12%
3.97
2/X
11%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.3pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.6pp
28%
Away Win
35%
-6.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.0pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İtalya v Almanya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Almanya EU Bookmakers 38%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.89/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/2.38
-9% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -65%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
18.2 Crosses 18.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.1

İtalya vs Almanya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Almanya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.73 xG 2.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 521
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.06.2022 Almanya Almanya 5-2 HT 2-0 İtalya İtalya AVUL
04.06.2022 İtalya İtalya 1-1 HT 0-0 Almanya Almanya AVUL
15.11.2016 İtalya İtalya 0-0 HT 0-0 Almanya Almanya HAZ
29.03.2016 Almanya Almanya 4-1 HT 2-0 İtalya İtalya HAZ
15.11.2013 İtalya İtalya 1-1 HT 1-1 Almanya Almanya HAZ
28.06.2012 Almanya Almanya 1-2 HT 0-2 İtalya İtalya AVR

İtalya 1-2 Almanya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya
1-2
AWAY Almanya
0.87 xG 0.92
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
311 Passes 463
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
19 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İtalya vs Almanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya nicked a narrow win over İtalya 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 33% / 28%) promised a tight game; Almanya found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İtalya had 41% of the ball to Almanya's 59%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.87 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almanya led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for İtalya and 2.00 for Almanya.

What was the final score of İtalya vs Almanya?

İtalya 1-2 Almanya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya vs Almanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split İtalya 39%, draw 33%, Almanya 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (İtalya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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