Türkiye 3-1 Macaristan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 26% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
18%
4.35
X/2
8%
9.37
X/X
13%
4.92
2/1
9%
23.4
2/2
12%
7.42
2/X
6%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Türkiye EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Macaristan EU Bookmakers 24%
-43% / -43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
35.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.9 Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Türkiye
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Macaristan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.90 xG 1.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
439 Passes 355
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.03.2024 Macaristan Macaristan 1-0 HT 0-0 Türkiye Türkiye HAZTUR
18.11.2020 Macaristan Macaristan 2-0 HT 0-0 Türkiye Türkiye AVUL
03.09.2020 Türkiye Türkiye 0-1 HT 0-0 Macaristan Macaristan AVUL
26.03.2013 Türkiye Türkiye 1-1 HT 0-0 Macaristan Macaristan DKE
16.10.2012 Macaristan Macaristan 3-1 HT 1-1 Türkiye Türkiye DKE
12.09.2007 Türkiye Türkiye 3-0 HT 0-0 Macaristan Macaristan AVR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Türkiye
3-1
AWAY Macaristan
0.79 xG 1.31
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
457 Passes 239
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Türkiye vs Macaristan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Türkiye got the better of Macaristan 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Türkiye had 63% of the ball to Macaristan's 37%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.79 to 1.31 — the balance of chances actually favoured Macaristan.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macaristan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Türkiye and 1.33 for Macaristan.

What was the final score of Türkiye vs Macaristan?

Türkiye 3-1 Macaristan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Türkiye vs Macaristan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Türkiye 50%, draw 25%, Macaristan 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Türkiye) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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