Hırvatistan 2-0 Fransa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
8%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 31% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.46
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
4%
14.55
X/1
11%
8.02
X/2
14%
4.47
X/X
18%
4.27
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.61
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+5.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hırvatistan EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Fransa EU Bookmakers 52%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.25/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.79
-24% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +61%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
19.8 Crosses 16.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hırvatistan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fransa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.19 xG 1.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
484 Passes 414
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.06.2022 Fransa Fransa 0-1 HT 0-1 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan AVUL
06.06.2022 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 1-1 HT 0-0 Fransa Fransa AVUL
14.10.2020 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Fransa Fransa AVUL
08.09.2020 Fransa Fransa 4-2 HT 2-1 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan AVUL
15.07.2018 Fransa Fransa 4-2 HT 2-1 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan DK
29.03.2011 Fransa Fransa 0-0 HT 0-0 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hırvatistan
2-0
AWAY Fransa
1.52 xG 1.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
299 Passes 529
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 35
9 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hırvatistan vs Fransa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hırvatistan beat Fransa 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fransa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hırvatistan had 38% of the ball to Fransa's 62%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.52 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fransa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hırvatistan and 1.83 for Fransa.

What was the final score of Hırvatistan vs Fransa?

Hırvatistan 2-0 Fransa in the UEFA Uluslar League on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hırvatistan vs Fransa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hırvatistan 29%, draw 30%, Fransa 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fransa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fransa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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