Hollanda 2-2 İspanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 25% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
9%
6.71
X/2
15%
5.27
X/X
8%
4.67
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
19%
3.12
2/X
9%
12.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hollanda EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya EU Bookmakers 45%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.04/2.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.70
+56% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +87%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 472 · 86%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
10.7 Crosses 16.7
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hollanda
2W-2D-0L
AWAY İspanya
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.86 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
305 Passes 521
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2020 Hollanda Hollanda 1-1 HT 0-1 İspanya İspanya HAZ
31.03.2015 Hollanda Hollanda 2-0 HT 2-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
13.06.2014 İspanya İspanya 1-5 HT 1-1 Hollanda Hollanda DK
11.07.2010 Hollanda Hollanda 0-0 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya DK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hollanda
2-2
AWAY İspanya
0.54 xG 1.41
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
349 Passes 564
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hollanda vs İspanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hollanda and İspanya shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was İspanya at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hollanda had 40% of the ball to İspanya's 60%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.54 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hollanda had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hollanda and 0.50 for İspanya.

What was the final score of Hollanda vs İspanya?

Hollanda 2-2 İspanya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hollanda vs İspanya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hollanda 34%, draw 24%, İspanya 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İspanya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İspanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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