Kosova 2-1 İzlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.83
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
17%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.63
X/2
10%
7.5
X/X
12%
4.29
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
10%
5.84
2/X
3%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.05 — our 17% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-2.8pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kosova EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY İzlanda EU Bookmakers 29%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.11/2.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.06
-37% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.2 Crosses 13.4
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kosova
0W-0D-2L
AWAY İzlanda
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.35 xG 1.41
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
410 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 0
09.10.2017 İzlanda İzlanda 2-0 HT 1-0 Kosova Kosova DKE
24.03.2017 Kosova Kosova 1-2 HT 0-2 İzlanda İzlanda DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kosova
2-1
AWAY İzlanda
1.32 xG 1.31
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
312 Passes 434
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kosova vs İzlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kosova squeezed past İzlanda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kosova as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kosova had 44% of the ball to İzlanda's 56%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.32 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, İzlanda led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kosova and 2.00 for İzlanda.

What was the final score of Kosova vs İzlanda?

Kosova 2-1 İzlanda in the UEFA Uluslar League on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kosova vs İzlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kosova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kosova 44%, draw 32%, İzlanda 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kosova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kosova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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