Özbekistan 1-0 Kırgızistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.14
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
9%
8.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
75%
-11.1pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.6pp
15%
Away Win
9%
+6.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.9pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Özbekistan EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Kırgızistan EU Bookmakers 11%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.15/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.67
-15% / +138% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -5%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
496 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 69%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.6
17.0 Crosses 10.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Özbekistan
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Kırgızistan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 0.92
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
524 Passes 280
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
10.09.2024 Kırgızistan Kırgızistan 2-3 HT 2-2 Özbekistan Özbekistan DKE
25.12.2023 Kırgızistan Kırgızistan 0-0 HT 0-0 Özbekistan Özbekistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Özbekistan
1-0
AWAY Kırgızistan
3.34 xG 0.05
74% Ball Possession 26%
26 Total Shots 1
9 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 0
609 Passes 165
87% Pass Accuracy 65%
38 Box Touches 2
34 Crosses 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Özbekistan vs Kırgızistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Özbekistan edged past Kırgızistan 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Özbekistan as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Özbekistan had 74% of the ball to Kırgızistan's 26%, shots finished 26-1, expected goals 3.34 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Özbekistan's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Özbekistan had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Özbekistan and 1.00 for Kırgızistan.

What was the final score of Özbekistan vs Kırgızistan?

Özbekistan 1-0 Kırgızistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Özbekistan vs Kırgızistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Özbekistan win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Özbekistan 64%, draw 21%, Kırgızistan 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Özbekistan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Özbekistan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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