Avustralya 5-1 Endonezya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒12:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.91
Over 2.5
41%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 34% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.3pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avustralya EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Endonezya EU Bookmakers 21%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
1.93/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.22/1.65
+18% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +32%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses 5.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 5.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avustralya
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Endonezya
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.58 xG 0.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
358 Passes 262
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2024 Endonezya Endonezya 0-0 HT 0-0 Avustralya Avustralya DKE
28.01.2024 Avustralya Avustralya 4-0 HT 2-0 Endonezya Endonezya ASK
03.03.2010 Avustralya Avustralya 1-0 HT 1-0 Endonezya Endonezya ASK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avustralya
5-1
AWAY Endonezya
2.30 xG 1.62
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
284 Passes 447
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 19
6 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH Avustralya vs Endonezya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avustralya ran out comfortable winners over Endonezya 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Avustralya as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avustralya had 40% of the ball to Endonezya's 60%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 2.30 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Avustralya had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Avustralya and 0.00 for Endonezya.

What was the final score of Avustralya vs Endonezya?

Avustralya 5-1 Endonezya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avustralya vs Endonezya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avustralya win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Avustralya 57%, draw 24%, Endonezya 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avustralya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avustralya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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