Gambiya 3-3 Kenya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.48
Over 2.5
32%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.09
No
64%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
43%
2.09
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
14%
5.32
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.09 — our 43% vs market 39.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
68%
Under 2.5
64%
+4.4pp
32%
Over 2.5
36%
-4.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.6pp
64%
BTTS No
56%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gambiya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kenya EU Bookmakers 33%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.01
-100% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gambiya
3-3
AWAY Kenya
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Passes 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gambiya vs Kenya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gambiya and Kenya couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gambiya had 53% of the ball to Kenya's 47%, shots finished 7-9.

What was the final score of Gambiya vs Kenya?

Gambiya 3-3 Kenya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gambiya vs Kenya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gambiya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gambiya 39%, draw 31%, Kenya 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gambiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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