Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-3
HT 0-1
Deportes Tolima
KOL
2-2
HT 0-1
Atletico Nacional
KOL
Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportes Tolima — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Nacional squeezed past Deportes Tolima 4-3. Half-time: 4-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Atletico Nacional had 48% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 52%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.53 to 1.40.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.33 for Deportes Tolima.
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 43%, draw 28%, Deportes Tolima 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.