Emelec 2-0 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Mar 2026

📅20/03/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
46%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
+0.3pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+3.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
0.85/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.97
-38% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
252 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 81%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.8 Crosses 14.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.62 xG 1.76
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
209 Passes 449
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2025 Emelec Emelec 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
05.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-2 HT 0-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
15.09.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
01.04.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.10.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
29.04.2023 Emelec Emelec 2-3 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
2-0
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.26 xG 0.50
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
209 Passes 402
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec beat Independiente Del Valle 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Emelec had 36% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 64%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.26 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Emelec and 1.50 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Independiente Del Valle?

Emelec 2-0 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Emelec 29%, draw 24%, Independiente Del Valle 46%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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