Orense 3-2 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Mar 2026

📅20/03/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -16%
1.40/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.47
-15% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -20%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 70%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.8 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.27 xG 1.31
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
253 Passes 166
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2025 Orense Orense 3-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
18.05.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-5 HT 2-2 Orense Orense EKV1
06.03.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-1 Orense Orense CSA
22.09.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
06.04.2024 Orense Orense 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
11.11.2023 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
3-2
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.41 xG 1.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
303 Passes 354
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orense vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense squeezed past Mushuc Runa 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orense had 46% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 54%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 1.41 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Orense and 1.67 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Orense vs Mushuc Runa?

Orense 3-2 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Orense 46%, draw 26%, Mushuc Runa 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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