Orense 3-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
13%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.20/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.59
-39% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 69%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.4 Crosses 18.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 1.51
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 Passes 145
76% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-5 HT 2-2 Orense Orense EKV1
06.03.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-1 Orense Orense CSA
22.09.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
06.04.2024 Orense Orense 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
11.11.2023 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
03.06.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-1 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
3-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.12 xG 0.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 7
199 Passes 276
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 7
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orense vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense got the better of Mushuc Runa 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orense had 44% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 56%, shots finished 9-3, expected goals 1.12 to 0.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Orense and 2.00 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Orense vs Mushuc Runa?

Orense 3-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Orense 47%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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