Aluminij 1-1 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 20 Mar 2026

📅20/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.65
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
55%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 30% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
13%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
55%
Away Win
60%
-4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminij EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 64%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
1.19/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.95
+7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
271 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminij
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Maribor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-3 HT 2-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
19.09.2025 Aluminij Aluminij 2-3 HT 1-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
04.03.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVNK
05.04.2024 Aluminij Aluminij 0-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
11.02.2024 Maribor Maribor 7-0 HT 4-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
01.10.2023 Aluminij Aluminij 1-0 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aluminij
1-1
AWAY Maribor
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aluminij vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aluminij and Maribor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Maribor carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aluminij had 31% of the ball to Maribor's 69%, shots finished 7-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aluminij and 2.67 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Aluminij vs Maribor?

Aluminij 1-1 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminij vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aluminij 22%, draw 23%, Maribor 55%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Maribor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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