Lobos UPNFM 2-1 CD Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.6
Over
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
45%
4-5
18%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.61/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.07
+25% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CD Real Sociedad
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
17.02.2025 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
24.11.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
19.09.2024 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 0-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
01.04.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
01.02.2024 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
01.10.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM squeezed past CD Real Sociedad 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lobos UPNFM as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.00 for CD Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad?

Lobos UPNFM 2-1 CD Real Sociedad in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 45%, draw 30%, CD Real Sociedad 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lobos UPNFM), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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