MOL Fehervar 1-1 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
9%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 27% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.5pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.4pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.46/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.59
-7% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
311 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.6 Crosses 19.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MOL Fehervar
4W-0D-2L
AWAY MTK Budapest
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 Passes 383
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2025 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 4-2 HT 0-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MACK
14.12.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 3-2 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.08.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.05.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 4-0 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
10.02.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-2 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
08.10.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MOL Fehervar
1-1
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.38 xG 1.65
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
268 Passes 392
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 23
28 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MOL Fehervar vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar and MTK Budapest couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, MOL Fehervar had 42% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 58%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.38 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MOL Fehervar had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for MOL Fehervar and 1.17 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of MOL Fehervar vs MTK Budapest?

MOL Fehervar 1-1 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MOL Fehervar vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated a MOL Fehervar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split MOL Fehervar 36%, draw 32%, MTK Budapest 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MOL Fehervar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MOL Fehervar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MAC More Hungary - NB I
20 Apr 2025
16:45 Ferencvaros vs Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Analysis →