Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Apr 2025

Atlas
1-1 HT 1-1
Guadalajara
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒06:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Atlas vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.03
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 51%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -17%
1.08/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.12
+4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
265 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 82%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.9 Crosses 24.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Atlas vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 1.56
42% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
209 Passes 316
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
06.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
28.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.05.2023 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-1
AWAY Guadalajara
1.75 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
287 Passes 301
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas and Guadalajara shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atlas had 49% of the ball to Guadalajara's 51%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 1.75 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlas and 1.50 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atlas 29%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Guadalajara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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