Fakel 0-2 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 20 Apr 2025

Fakel
0-2 HT 0-1
Rostov
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 32% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.97
1/2
11%
27.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
12%
6.57
X/2
12%
4.88
X/X
17%
4.45
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.15
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.5pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 46%
+9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +29%
1.03/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.27
-13% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
243 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
22.6 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Rostov
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.12 xG 1.57
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
145 Passes 294
58% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Rostov Rostov 4-1 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
14.04.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
23.07.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
06.05.2023 Rostov Rostov 0-2 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
22.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
0-2
AWAY Rostov
2.03 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
25 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
227 Passes 187
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
38 Box Touches 26
38 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov beat Fakel 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 31% / 40% — and on the day Rostov made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 55% of the ball to Rostov's 45%, shots finished 25-14, expected goals 2.03 to 1.12 — the balance of chances actually favoured Fakel.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fakel and 1.60 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Rostov?

Fakel 0-2 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fakel 29%, draw 31%, Rostov 40%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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