Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alianza Petrolera v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
0-1
HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Medellin nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 1-0 away from home.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 58% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 42%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.23 to 0.51 — on chances, Alianza Petrolera could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.17 for Independiente Medellin.
What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?
Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 20/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?
Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 29%, draw 25%, Independiente Medellin 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.