Almagro 1-0 Estudiantes Caseros — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
38%
2.63
Away
24%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.28
Over 2.5
32%
3.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.51
No
65%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
23%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
+7.5pp
38%
Draw
35%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
34%
-10.5pp
68%
Under 2.5
75%
-6.7pp
32%
Over 2.5
25%
+6.7pp
35%
BTTS Yes
36%
-1.0pp
65%
BTTS No
64%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almagro EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes Caseros EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
0.74/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/0.72
-26% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +33%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almagro
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes Caseros
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
02.03.2024 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 1-1 HT 0-0 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
30.04.2022 Almagro Almagro 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros ARJPBN
02.08.2015 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros 3-2 HT 3-1 Almagro Almagro ARJPBM
21.03.2015 Almagro Almagro 0-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros ARJPBM
07.02.2015 Almagro Almagro 0-1 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Caseros Estudiantes Caseros ARJK
POST-MATCH Almagro vs Estudiantes Caseros
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almagro squeezed past Estudiantes Caseros 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 38% / 24% — and on the day Almagro made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (65%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Estudiantes Caseros led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Almagro and 1.20 for Estudiantes Caseros.

What was the final score of Almagro vs Estudiantes Caseros?

Almagro 1-0 Estudiantes Caseros in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almagro vs Estudiantes Caseros?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almagro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Almagro 39%, draw 38%, Estudiantes Caseros 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almagro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almagro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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