Atletico Rafaela 1-5 Nueva Chicago — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.27
Draw
37%
2.83
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
1.36
Over 2.5
28%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.44
No
64%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
23%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
40%
-7.6pp
37%
Draw
32%
+5.3pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.3pp
72%
Under 2.5
70%
+1.9pp
28%
Over 2.5
30%
-1.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
37%
-0.6pp
64%
BTTS No
63%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nueva Chicago EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.16/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.76
+1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +35%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Rafaela
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Nueva Chicago
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
274 Passes 215
67% Pass Accuracy 64%
01.03.2024 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
24.04.2022 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-1 HT 0-1 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ARJPBN
07.06.2015 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 2-0 HT 1-0 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ARJ
23.05.2004 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 2-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJ
POST-MATCH Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nueva Chicago ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Rafaela 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 37% / 30% — and on the day Nueva Chicago made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Atletico Rafaela and 1.25 for Nueva Chicago.

What was the final score of Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago?

Atletico Rafaela 1-5 Nueva Chicago in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Rafaela vs Nueva Chicago?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Rafaela 33%, draw 37%, Nueva Chicago 30%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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