Alvarado 1-2 Tristan Suarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-5.8pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.4pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alvarado EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Tristan Suarez EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.32/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.57
+6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 174 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alvarado
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Tristan Suarez
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
02.03.2024 Tristan Suarez Tristan Suarez 2-2 HT 1-1 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
05.03.2022 Tristan Suarez Tristan Suarez 3-3 HT 1-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Alvarado vs Tristan Suarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tristan Suarez nicked a narrow win over Alvarado 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Tristan Suarez found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Alvarado and 2.50 for Tristan Suarez.

What was the final score of Alvarado vs Tristan Suarez?

Alvarado 1-2 Tristan Suarez in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alvarado vs Tristan Suarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alvarado win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alvarado 37%, draw 32%, Tristan Suarez 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alvarado) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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