Maribor 1-2 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.16
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 26% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.2pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.37/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.23
+2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Celje
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.05.2025 Maribor Maribor 1-1 HT 1-1 Celje Celje SLVN
02.04.2025 Maribor Maribor 0-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVNK
08.02.2025 Celje Celje 1-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.10.2024 Maribor Maribor 1-2 HT 1-0 Celje Celje SLVN
18.09.2024 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
09.03.2024 Celje Celje 1-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
1-2
AWAY Celje
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje edged past Maribor 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Maribor had 36% of the ball to Celje's 64%, shots finished 6-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Maribor and 1.33 for Celje.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Celje?

Maribor 1-2 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Maribor 42%, draw 23%, Celje 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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