AFC Hornchurch 1-0 St. Albans City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Aug 2024

📅20/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.82
2-3 Goals
46%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Albans City EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +24%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-0
AWAY St. Albans City
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs St. Albans City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch edged past St. Albans City 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day AFC Hornchurch made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 36% of the ball to St. Albans City's 64%, shots finished 5-12.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs St. Albans City?

AFC Hornchurch 1-0 St. Albans City in the England - Conference on 20/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs St. Albans City?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 38%, draw 29%, St. Albans City 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Hornchurch), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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