Chorley 1-2 Scarborough Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 20 Aug 2024

📅20/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.87
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Scarborough Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
2.19/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.82
+32% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Scarborough Athletic
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Chorley Chorley 3-0 HT 1-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
18.11.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-0 HT 0-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic FAK
07.11.2023 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
10.04.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-3 HT 2-1 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
13.09.2022 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 3-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
1-2
AWAY Scarborough Athletic
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Scarborough Athletic squeezed past Chorley 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chorley at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chorley had 46% of the ball to Scarborough Athletic's 54%, shots finished 15-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Chorley and 1.40 for Scarborough Athletic.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?

Chorley 1-2 Scarborough Athletic in the England - Conference on 20/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chorley 43%, draw 26%, Scarborough Athletic 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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