Mushuc Runa 2-1 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 20 Aug 2025

📅20/08/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
50%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 30% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.42
1/2
5%
24.1
1/X
5%
14.95
X/1
9%
8.06
X/2
22%
4.3
X/X
9%
4.7
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.45
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.6pp
50%
Away Win
51%
-1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 55%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
239 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 1.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
189 Passes 370
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa CSA
24.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-1
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.64 xG 1.88
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
109 Passes 371
67% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 34
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa squeezed past Independiente Del Valle 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 28% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 72%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.64 to 1.88 — on chances, Independiente Del Valle could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.50 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Mushuc Runa 2-1 Independiente Del Valle in the Copa Sudamericana on 20/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 28%, draw 22%, Independiente Del Valle 50%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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