Vaduz 2-5 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 20 Sep 2024

Vaduz
2-5 HT 2-3
Aarau
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2024/2025

Vaduz vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.91
6+ Goals
12%
8.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vaduz v Aarau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vaduz EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.79/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.83
+21% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
17.2 Crosses 12.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vaduz vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vaduz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 358
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.05.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.01.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
22.10.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
25.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 3-2 HT 1-2 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
14.05.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 0-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
02.04.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2

Vaduz 2-5 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vaduz
2-5
AWAY Aarau
0.91 xG 3.19
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 12
405 Passes 274
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vaduz vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau swept aside Vaduz 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vaduz at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vaduz had 58% of the ball to Aarau's 42%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.91 to 3.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vaduz and 1.33 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Vaduz vs Aarau?

Vaduz 2-5 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vaduz vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vaduz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vaduz 44%, draw 26%, Aarau 29%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vaduz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vaduz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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