ACR Messina 2-2 Casertana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
5.75
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.9pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Casertana EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.23/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.82
+6% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +41%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Casertana
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2024 Casertana Casertana 0-2 HT 0-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
11.10.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-1 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
21.12.2015 Casertana Casertana 4-1 HT 2-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
15.02.2015 Casertana Casertana 3-1 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
2-2
AWAY Casertana
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
7 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Casertana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ACR Messina and Casertana couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ACR Messina had 47% of the ball to Casertana's 53%, shots finished 14-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Casertana led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for ACR Messina and 2.00 for Casertana.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Casertana?

ACR Messina 2-2 Casertana in the Italy - Serie C on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Casertana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Casertana win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 34%, draw 30%, Casertana 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Casertana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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