ADO Den Haag 1-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.55 — our 25% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.1
X/2
14%
7.0
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
15%
4.47
2/X
5%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.5pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.44/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.29
+14% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.1 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Telstar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 1.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
405 Passes 278
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2024 Telstar Telstar 3-1 HT 2-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
22.09.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 1-1 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
31.03.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 3-1 HT 0-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
11.11.2022 Telstar Telstar 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.03.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
19.11.2021 Telstar Telstar 0-2 HT 0-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
1-1
AWAY Telstar
0.92 xG 0.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
274 Passes 273
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 6
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag and Telstar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 50% of the ball to Telstar's 50%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.00 for Telstar.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?

ADO Den Haag 1-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 43%, draw 23%, Telstar 34%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✗ Over 2.5
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