Helmond Sport 2-3 Volendam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 27% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.07
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.25
X/1
12%
5.3
X/2
12%
6.53
X/X
14%
5.21
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
15%
4.12
2/X
6%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.9pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Volendam EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.38/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.40
+0% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
20.0 Crosses 16.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Volendam
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.80 xG 2.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
274 Passes 484
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.02.2022 Volendam Volendam 4-1 HT 4-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
03.12.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 1-1 Volendam Volendam HOL2
09.04.2021 Volendam Volendam 5-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.09.2020 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-1 HT 0-0 Volendam Volendam HOL2
31.01.2020 Volendam Volendam 2-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
09.08.2019 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 Volendam Volendam HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-3
AWAY Volendam
1.75 xG 2.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
363 Passes 334
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Volendam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Volendam squeezed past Helmond Sport 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Volendam made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 51% of the ball to Volendam's 49%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.75 to 2.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Volendam led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.33 for Volendam.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Volendam?

Helmond Sport 2-3 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Volendam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 40%, draw 28%, Volendam 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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