VVV-Venlo 0-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.91
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.59
6+ Goals
13%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
10%
5.04
X/2
9%
7.91
X/X
12%
5.89
2/1
8%
20.9
2/2
18%
4.78
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.0pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.48/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.58
+2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
347 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 75%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
25.5 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PSV II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.32 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 Passes 406
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
22.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
23.01.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
16.09.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
14.01.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-4 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
01.10.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
0-2
AWAY PSV II
0.80 xG 0.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
298 Passes 417
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II saw off VVV-Venlo 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was VVV-Venlo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 44% of the ball to PSV II's 56%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 0.80 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.67 for PSV II.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs PSV II?

VVV-Venlo 0-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 41%, draw 24%, PSV II 34%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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