Newport County 1-3 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Sep 2025

Newport County
1-3 HT 1-3
Gillingham
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Newport County vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.7
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.1
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.2
X/1
13%
7.75
X/2
15%
4.48
X/X
11%
4.39
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.61
2/X
4%
13.1
Value flag · 1/X at 14.2 — our 9% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.13/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.48
-6% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -46%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
261 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 73%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
16.5 Crosses 22.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2

Newport County vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Gillingham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.11 xG 1.42
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
179 Passes 287
59% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.03.2025 Newport County Newport County 3-1 HT 3-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
22.10.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
17.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
29.04.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.11.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2

Newport County 1-3 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-3
AWAY Gillingham
1.80 xG 1.91
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
346 Passes 142
80% Pass Accuracy 63%
29 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham beat Newport County 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gillingham as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newport County had 65% of the ball to Gillingham's 35%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.80 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newport County and 0.33 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Gillingham?

Newport County 1-3 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Newport County 29%, draw 25%, Gillingham 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
20 Sep 2025
14:30 Harrogate Town vs Shrewsbury Analysis →
14:30 Cambridge United vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →
17:00 Walsall vs Tranmere Rovers Analysis →
17:00 Barrow vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
17:00 Colchester vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
17:00 Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →