Varbergs 3-1 Trelleborgs FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.07
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
16%
4.16
X/2
7%
9.76
X/X
9%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.35
2/2
11%
7.61
2/X
7%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.1pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Trelleborgs FF EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -7%
1.99/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.60
+20% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
388 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varbergs
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Trelleborgs FF
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2025 Trelleborgs FF Trelleborgs FF 0-4 HT 0-3 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇ2
02.11.2024 Trelleborgs FF Trelleborgs FF 0-1 HT 0-0 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇ2
06.05.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 0-1 HT 0-1 Trelleborgs FF Trelleborgs FF İSÇ2
08.03.2024 Trelleborgs FF Trelleborgs FF 3-1 HT 1-0 Varbergs Varbergs HAZ
POST-MATCH Varbergs vs Trelleborgs FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs beat Trelleborgs FF 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Varbergs as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Varbergs and 1.00 for Trelleborgs FF.

What was the final score of Varbergs vs Trelleborgs FF?

Varbergs 3-1 Trelleborgs FF in the Sweden - Superettan on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs vs Trelleborgs FF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varbergs win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Varbergs 53%, draw 23%, Trelleborgs FF 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varbergs), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Varbergs) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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