Philadelphia Union 1-0 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Sep 2025

Philadelphia Union
1-0 HT 0-0
New England Revolution
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.38
Over 2.5
62%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.73
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
29%
2.67
6+ Goals
15%
6.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.85
X/1
14%
4.19
X/2
7%
11.1
X/X
10%
6.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.25
2/2
10%
8.22
2/X
5%
16.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.25 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.0pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.0pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.4pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
2.18/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.00
+24% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
21.2 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
5W-0D-1L
AWAY New England Revolution
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.68 xG 0.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
381 Passes 397
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2025 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
18.07.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 5-1 HT 3-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
19.05.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-3 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
09.11.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
29.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-1 HT 3-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
22.10.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 2-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD

Philadelphia Union 1-0 New England Revolution — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-0
AWAY New England Revolution
1.64 xG 0.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
324 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union edged past New England Revolution 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 54% of the ball to New England Revolution's 46%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.64 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Philadelphia Union's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Philadelphia Union and 0.67 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

Philadelphia Union 1-0 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 58%, draw 20%, New England Revolution 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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