Mushuc Runa 2-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
54%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
30%
-6.7pp
22%
Draw
28%
-6.2pp
54%
Away Win
41%
+12.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +20%
0.89/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.17
-19% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
13.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.6 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.94 xG 1.93
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
168 Passes 379
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle CSA
13.08.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa CSA
24.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.31 xG 1.05
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
250 Passes 322
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa and Independiente Del Valle couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 45% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 55%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.31 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.17 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Mushuc Runa 2-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 24%, draw 22%, Independiente Del Valle 54%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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