Defensor Sporting 2-1 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.06
No
48%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.1pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.27/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.00
+5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Danubio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
57% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.03.2025 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
05.10.2024 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
31.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
14.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
07.12.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 Danubio Danubio URU
15.07.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
2-1
AWAY Danubio
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting squeezed past Danubio 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Defensor Sporting found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 55% of the ball to Danubio's 45%, shots finished 7-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Defensor Sporting and 0.83 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?

Defensor Sporting 2-1 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 40%, draw 27%, Danubio 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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