Alpendorada 1-2 Cinfaes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
1.56
Over
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No Pick
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
41%
4-5
20%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alpendorada The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Cinfaes The Market 37%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+127% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alpendorada
1-2
AWAY Cinfaes
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alpendorada vs Cinfaes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cinfaes squeezed past Alpendorada 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Alpendorada at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alpendorada had 49% of the ball to Cinfaes's 51%, shots finished 10-16.

What was the final score of Alpendorada vs Cinfaes?

Alpendorada 1-2 Cinfaes in the Portugal - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alpendorada vs Cinfaes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alpendorada win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alpendorada 42%, draw 29%, Cinfaes 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alpendorada) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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